5月13日 JTWC預測珍珠吹向澳門

以上是數值預報結果



JTWC預測珍珠吹向澳門

WDPN31 PGTW 130300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 02W WARNING NR 18//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR 130000Z TO 180000Z MAY 2006.
A. TYPHOON (TY) 02W (CHANCHU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 70 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT
09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS.
B. WHILE THE TRACK OF TY 02W BECAME ERRATIC WHILE CROSSING THE
ISLAND OF MINDORO, THE SYSTEM WILL RESUME A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK
ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL STEERING RIDGE CENTERED
SOUTH OF HONG KONG. A SERIES OF MIDLATITUDE TROUGHS WILL WEAKEN THE
STEERING RIDGE AND CAUSE TY 02W TO TURN POLEWARD AFTER TAU 48. THE
DYNAMIC AIDS OF NOGAPS, GFDN, AFWA MM5, COAMPS, NCEP GFS, JGSM, JTYM,
EGRR, AND TCLAPS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF WBAR WHICH IS A POLEWARD OUTLIER. THIS FORECAST IS BASED
ON A CONSENSUS OF ALL AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS, WITH LESS EMPHASIS
PLACED ON WBAR.
C. TY 02W IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY SIGNIFICANTLY AS IT REEMERGES
OVER OPEN WATER AND TRACKS OVER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES NEAR 30
DEGREES CELSIUS AND ENCOUNTERS AN ENVIRONMENT OF LOW VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR WITH REDEVELOPING RADIAL OUTFLOW.
D. CURRENT WIND RADII ARE BASED ON AN 12236Z SSMI PASS. FORECAST
WIND RADII ARE BASED ON CLIMATOLOGY FOR AN AVERAGE-SIZED SYSTEM.
E. A POLEWARD TRACK WILL PERSIST IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE INTENSIFIES EAST OF THE SYSTEM CAUSING THE SYSTEM
TO MAKE LANDFALL IN THE VICINITY OF HONG KONG. TY 02W WILL WEAKEN AS
IT MAKES LANDFALL AND MOVES INTO AND AN ENVIRONMENT OF INCREASED
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR NEAR TAU 120.
3. FORECAST TEAM: DELTA//
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