颶風IOKE在今日香港時間午後由東半球進入西半球
又一經典時刻
超級颶風強度的熱帶氣旋IOKE從東半球進入西半球
以下事夏威夷颱風預報機構對IOKE的最後一篇discussion 發佈
佢地表示下一警報會交俾日本氣象台發佈
WTPA42 PHFO 270240
TCDCP2
HURRICANE IOKE DISCUSSION NUMBER 29
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012006
500 PM HST SAT AUG 26 2006
HURRICANE IOKE IS ABOUT TO CROSS THE DATELINE AND BECOME TYPHOON
IOKE...STILL AT CATEGORY 5 STATUS. SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES FOR
26/2330Z OF 7.0 FROM CPHC AND KGWC...AND 6.5 FROM SAB AND
JTWC...PROMPT US TO KEEP INITIAL INTENSITY AT 140 KT. AODT FROM CPHC
IS 6.9. IOKE MAINTAINS A WELL-FORMED EYE WITH A CENTRAL TEMP OF
+3.8C AND A SURROUNDING CLOUD REGION TEMP OF -72.0C. IOKE APPEARS
TO HAVE COMPLETED AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE WITH LITTLE OR NO
DECREASE IN INTENSITY OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS.
MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE IS NICELY CLUSTERED...WITH GUNS..GUNA AND CONU
IN CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH...STRANGELY ENOUGH...BAMS. NOGAPS AND BAMD
REPRESENT THE RIGHT AND LEFT OUTLIERS...RESPECTIVELY. TRACK CLUSTER
GUIDANCE CONTINUES THE TAKE IOKE ALONG A WEST TO WEST SOUTHWESTERLY
COURSE THROUGH 36 HOURS AS THIS SYSTEM RESPONDS TO WEAK RIDGING TO
ITS NORTHWEST. THE 18Z GFS75 SHOWS THIS RIDGE WILL SPLIT ALONG
IOKE/S PATH BEYOND 36 HOURS...DRAWING IOKE DUE WESTWARD BY 48 HOURS
THEN NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH 72...96 AND 120 HOURS. THE FORECAST TRACK
IS VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK THROUGH 72 HOURS...THEN DEVIATES
SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK AT 96 AND 120 HOURS.
SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW IOKE HAS BEGUN TO TAKE A MORE WEST
SOUTHWESTERLY TRACK VERSUS THE SOUTHWESTERLY TRACK NOTED EARLIER
TODAY. INITIAL FORWARD MOTION HAS INCREASED AS WELL AND IS INCREASED
SLIGHTLY THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE FORECAST TRACK. WHILE THE FORECAST
TRACK TAKES IOKE NORTHEAST OF WAKE ISLAND AT POINT OF CLOSEST
APPROACH BETWEEN 84 AND 96 HOURS...IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT THE
18Z GFS75 TAKES THIS SYSTEM ALMOST DIRECTLY OVER THAT ISLAND AT 96
HOURS.
IOKE WILL LIKELY GO THROUGH SEVERAL EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLES OVER
THE COMING DAYS...RESULTING IN SHORT TERM STRENGTH FLUCTUATIONS.
HOWEVER...MODEL GUIDANCE KEEPS IOKE AT OR NEAR ITS CURRENT STRENGTH
THROUGH 120 HOURS. NOGAPS AND UKMET ARE RATHER STEADY BUT...AS AN
OUTLIER...GFDL WANTS TO STRENGTHEN IOKE TO 170 KT AT 96 HOURS.
INCREASING SST AND LOW SHEAR ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK WILL...AT THE
VERY LEAST...GREATLY SLOW IOKE/S DECAY AT HIGHER LATITUDES.
THEREFORE...THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS
PACKAGE. IOKE COULD ENTER THE RECORD BOOKS FOR LONGEVITY AS A
CATEGORY 4 OR GREATER STORM.
THIS IS THE FINAL DISCUSSION FROM THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. REFER TO THE BULLETIN BY RSMC TOKYO
HEREAFTER.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 27/0300Z 17.7N 179.3W 140 KT
12HR VT 27/1200Z 17.2N 179.1E 140 KT
24HR VT 28/0000Z 17.0N 177.0E 140 KT
36HR VT 28/1200Z 17.0N 175.1E 140 KT
48HR VT 29/0000Z 17.3N 173.2E 140 KT
72HR VT 30/0000Z 18.5N 169.7E 140 KT
96HR VT 31/0000Z 20.8N 166.4E 140 KT
120HR VT 01/0000Z 23.6N 163.1E 135 KT
$$
FORECASTER POWELL
日本氣象台在今日下午接班
留意定為較夏威夷的偏西南數十公里
133
WTJP21 RJTD 270600
WARNING 270600.
WARNING VALID 280600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 0612 IOKE (0612) FORMER HURRICANE 920 HPA
AT 17.5N 180.0E SOUTH OF MIDWAYS MOVING WESTSOUTHWEST 13 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 105 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 90 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 200 MILES NORTH SEMICIRCLE AND 140 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 280600UTC AT 16.8N 176.7E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
920 HPA, MAX WINDS 105 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 290600UTC AT 16.3N 173.4E WITH 150 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
920 HPA, MAX WINDS 105 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 300600UTC AT 17.3N 170.7E WITH 220 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
920 HPA, MAX WINDS 105 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=
IOKE路徑圖:
Quikscat圖,顯示IOKE範圍廣闊,半徑達500-800km
越界時的衛星圖,圖中顯示整體結構仍在東半球
但風眼已開始進入西半球範圍:
posted by Lawrence Chung @ 8/27/2006 06:00:00 下午
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